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Asset Management Summer University 2022

Thu, Aug 25

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Paris

Geopolitical risks, oil shock and inflation: Back to the 70s?

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Asset Management Summer University 2022
Asset Management Summer University 2022

Time & Location

Aug 25, 2022, 2:00 PM – 6:30 PM

Paris, Pl. of Marshal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75016 Paris, France

About the event

The 9th edition of the Asset Management Summer University is taking place in an unprecedented context. As we are barely recovering from a global pandemic that has lasted for more than 2 years, we are now facing a war waged within the borders of Europe by Russia, with already short-term consequences on all financial markets: Commodity markets, emerging markets, etc. In the longer term, as war returns and several countries with authoritarian regimes threaten our liberal democracies, the question of European sovereignty is becoming even more pressing.

Indeed, the COVID crisis had already raised the question of our interdependence regarding our supplies. This dark episode that began in February 2022, reminds us of our weaknesses and the strategic sectors that will need to be strengthened in the future: energy, defense, food, in addition to health.

This global crisis comes at a time when inflation levels are already historically high. In January 2022, the latest figures from the European Central Bank (ECB) show a rise in prices in the eurozone of +5.1% over one year. In the United States, the inflation index for the whole of 2021, published on February 2, 2022 by the Department of Labor, is +7%, a record since 1981! According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the inflation outlook for 2022 is 5.7% for advanced economies and 8.7% for emerging and developing economies.

Rising inflation, falling rates: Faced with these challenges, what can governments and central banks respond to? Avoid losing control of inflation so as not to erode household purchasing power and investors' net returns as was the case in the 1930s or 1970s? Or increase interest rates to the point of aggravating the slowdown in growth and the entry into recession? In this context, is the parallel with the hyperinflation of the 1930s or the oil shocks of the 1970s relevant?

Bonds, stocks, real estate, commodities, emerging markets…: What are the consequences for long-term investors? Should we review asset allocation models in the face of this new paradigm?

Energy, Tech, Security, Defense, Health…: Which sectors should we prioritize? Climate, Water, Circular Economy, Food, Education…: Should ESG approaches and themes be questioned, adapted or on the contrary strengthened?

The Asset Management Summer University, organized by the House of Finance of Paris Dauphine University - PSL, in partnership with Quantalys and Sanso IS, will welcome public decision-makers, economists, strategists, financial experts and asset managers to discuss these crucial questions and to bring out avenues of reflection.

The program will be posted online soon.

By registering, you will receive the program in preview.

The event will be followed by a cocktail reception.

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